A Statistical Review of UFO Center Sightings, 1947-2004 By Eileen Nesbitt
Additional Research by Vallee - Christopher Montgomery
National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC) 2. http://www.nuforc.org/webreports/ndxevent.html (At last check, Peter Davenport has changed sites again. If link doesn't work, please point your browser to http://ufocenter.com - Editor)
The lists are in order as reported from January 1947 through December 2004. The timeframe reported represents 58 years (696 months). This list was retrieved from the above website on January 21, 2005. The total sightings reported during the 696 months were 29,580.
What I discovered upon placing these figures on a spreadsheet and consequently multitudes of charts and graphs was that there was a definite pattern showing that UFO sightings increase in numbers in consecutive months. After those consecutive months, the reported sightings decrease and then a few months later increase once again in larger numbers. This I found to be a possibility that UFO’s come and go in waves.
In order to discover the waves, I totaled each year and simply divided it by 12 to give me an average of reported sightings for each month. I then set aside each month that met that average. In doing so, I discovered that these months that met an average were all consecutive.
Within the 696 months, I discovered a total of only 35 variables that were questionable. 23 of the 35 variables represent a month found within the consecutive months in the column on the right, but are not of the average for that month. They are however, extremely close. The average total of the 23 variables was only 0.033045977. In other words, the total average of the variables only put them at 3 sightings off their mark for the average of that given month.
These are the following variables and their average. They represent the numbers of sightings within the consecutive months that are off their mark. 0.25, 0.75, 1.0, 1.33, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 1.67, 1.83, 2.33, 2.75, 3, 3.42, 3.67, 4.0, 4.08, 4.17, 4.38, 4.92, 5.25, 7.25, 9.67. As you can see, not really any of them are off by much at all.
The remaining 12 variables represent numbers on either side of those posted in the column on the right' within a given year that are outside the grouping and of the necessary average or larger. There were only 12 out of 696 entries possible. This amount could be considered insignificant when you consider that 12 is only 0.017% of 696.
I found only one single exception to the rule, which I ruled out completely and was found in the month of September 1997. This single entry for September was off by 45.83. This is a considerable difference considering that no other variable was larger than 9.67. Because of the tremendous difference on that month while comparing it to the 696 months, I did not apply it to a variable whatsoever and instead assumed it could have been an occasion where UFO's could have all pulled back suddenly for some unapparent reason to us. No where else in the 696 months did this occur. I consider it fluke and probably only explainable by them. For that matter, the reporting website National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC at ufocenter.com) may have an explanation as to the lack of sightings reported in September 1997.
A blue variable represents a month found within the numbers posted in column 'C' but not of the
average for that month. There are a total of 23 months throughout the 696 month timeframe that are marked
accordingly. From the 23 variables, the difference between their average for that year came to
a total difference of 73.05 or an individual average of 3.04 off their mark. There was only
one exception to that, which I pulled out as a fluke. It is from September 17, 1997, where
the average for that year was 89.83 sightings. This single entry for September was off by 45.83.
This is a considerable difference considering that no other variable was larger than 9.67
and that all variables combined showed a difference of only 3.04. Because of the tremendous
difference on that date while comparing it to 696 months, I did not apply it to a variable
whatsoever and instead assumed it could have been an occasion where UFO's could have pulled back
suddenly for some unapparent reason to us. No where else in the 696 months did this occur. I consider it
fluke and probably only explainable by them. lol. Consequently, I did not consider it within the variables.
For that matter, the reporting website may have an explanation as to the difference on September 17, 1997.
A Statistical Review of UFO Center Sightings, 1947-2004 By Eileen Nesbitt. The numbers represent sightings and other anomalies received and compiled by the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC). This information was retrieved from the following monthly reporting index.1.
YEAR 2004 4132/12=344.33 8 mo. consec.
December 2004 240
November 2004 298
October 2004 382 382
September 2004 356 356
August 2004 484 484
July 2004 365 365
June 2004 356 356
May 2004 358 358
April 2004 340 340
March 2004 384 384
February 2004 285
January 2004 284
YEAR 2003 4056/12=338.0 6 mo. consec.
December 2003 368 368
November 2003 451 451
October 2003 436 436
September 2003 476 476
August 2003 492 492
July 2003403 403
June 2003 263
May 2003 224
April 2003 211
March 2003 175
February 2003 253
January 2003 304
YEAR 2002 3400/12=283.33 6 mo. consec.
December 2002 237
November 2002 284 284
October 2002 309 309
September 2002 358 358
August 2002 458 458
July 2002 406 406
June 2002 298 298
May 2002 226
April 2002 178
March 2002 185
February 2002 240
January 2002 221
YEAR 2001 3195/12=266.25 4 mo. consec.
December 2001 200
November 2001 255
October 2001 231
September 2001 289 289
August 2001 369 369
July 2001 371 371
June 2001 274 274
May 2001 232
April 2001 217
March 2001 272
February 2001 217
January 2001 268
YEAR 2000 2795/12=232.92 5 mo. consec.
December 2000 219
November 2000 220
October 2000 302 302
September 2000 274 274
August 2002 276 276
July 2000 326 326
June 2000 228 228
May 2000 173
April 2000 170
March 2000 212
February 2000 182
January 2000 213
YEAR 1999 2886/12=240.50 5 mo. consec.
December 1999 210
November 1999 428 428
October 1999 287 287
September 1999 376 376
August 1999 286 286
July 1999 277 277
June 1999 231
May 1999 173
April 1999 161
March 1999 153
February 1999 168
January 1999 136
YEAR 1998 1731/12=144.25 7 mo. consec.
December 1998 178 178
November 1998 199 199
October 1998 204 204
September 1998 225 225
August 1998 137 137
July 1998 152 152
June 1998 155 155
May 1998 89
April 1998 111
March 1998 127
February 1998 81
January 1998 73
YEAR 1997 1078/12=89.83 7 mo. consec.
December 1997 66
November 1997 112 112
October 1997 89 89
September 1997 44 44
August 1997 105 105
July 1997167 167
June 1997 123 123
May 1997 88 88
April 1997 76
March 1997 129
February 1997 36
January 1997 43
YEAR 1996 771/12=64.25 5 mo. consec.
December 1996 76
November 1996 72
October 1996 38
September 1996 51
August 1996 53
July 1996 56
June 1996 97 97
May 1996 66 66
April 1996 94 94
March 1996 59 59
February 1996 64 64
January 1996 45
YEAR 1995 1240/12=103.33 6 mo. consec.
December 1995 47
November 1995 108 108
October 1995 94 94
September 1995 116 116
August 1995 168 168
July 1995 104 104
June 1995 124 124
May 1995 86
April 1995 78
March 1995 116
February 1995 115
January 1995 84
YEAR 1994 271/12=22.58 7 mo. consec.
December 1994 28
November 1994 14
October 1994 31 31
September 1994 26 26
August 1994 32 32
July 1994 25 25
June 1994 39 39
May 1994 23 23
April 1994 22 22
March 1994 13
February 1994 8
January 1994 10
YEAR 1993 208/12=17.33 4 mo. consec.
December 1993 7
November 1993 16
October 1993 11
September 1993 15
August 1993 27 27
July 199331 31
June 1993 46 46
May 1993 18 18
April 1993 7
March 1993 10
February 1993 10
January 1993 10
YEAR 1992 145/12=12.08 6 mo. consec.
December 1992 11
November 1992 5
October 1992 17 17
September 1992 8 8
August 1992 13 13
July 1992 16 16
June 1992 34 34
May 1992 14 14
April 1992 11
March 1992 4
February 1992 7
January 1992 5
YEAR 1991 141/12=11.75 5 mo. consec.
December 1991 8
November 1991 9
October 1991 7
September 1991 17 17
August 1991 19 19
July 1991 23 23
June 1991 21 21
May 1991 13 13
April 1991 8
March 1991 7
February 1991 3
January 1991 6
YEAR 1990 147/12=12.25 5 mo. consec.
December 1990 8
November 1990 11
October 1990 15 15
September 1990 8 8
August 1990 23 23
July 1990 23 23
June 1990 24 24
May 1990 11
April 1990 3
March 1990 3
February 1990 7
January 1990 11
YEAR 1989 156/12=13 7 mo. consec.
December 1989 11
November 1989 15 15
October 1989 24 24
September 1989 13 13
August 1989 10 10
July 1989 19 19
June 1989 25 25
May 1989 13 13
April 1989 4
March 1989 7
February 1989 5
January 1989 10
YEAR 1988 117/12=9.75 5 mo. consec.
December 1988 8
November 1988 7
October 1988 18 18
September 1988 7 7
August 1988 22 22
July 1988 14 14
June 1988 16 16
May 1988 5
April 1988 5
March 1988 8
February 1988 1
January 1988 6
YEAR 1987 125/12=10.42 5 mo. consec.
December 1987 6
November 1987 5
October 1987 12 12
September 1987 7 7
August 1987 19 19
July 1987 24 24
June 1987 21 21
May 1987 8
April 1987 7
March 1987 4
February 1987 6
January 1987 6
YEAR 1986 106/12=8.83 7 mo. consec.
December 1986 4
November 1986 3
October 1986 17 17
September 1986 7 7
August 1986 15 15
July 1986 9 9
June 1986 20 20
May 1986 7 7
April 1986 9 9
March 1986 3
February 1986 8
January 1986 4
YEAR 1985 108/12=9 5 mo. consec.
December 1985 5
November 1985 5
October 1985 11 11
September 1985 11 11
August 1985 13 13
July 1985 17 17
June 1985 26 26
May 1985 5
April 1985 4
March 1985 3
February 1985 2
January 1985 6
YEAR 1984 115/12=9.58 5 mo. consec.
December 1984 3
November 1984 5
October 1984 15 15
September 1984 10 10
August 1984 15 15
July 1984 16 16
June 1984 30 30
May 1984 6
April 1984 5
March 1984 4
February 1984 2
January 1984 4
YEAR 1983 88/12=7.33 6 mo. consec.
December 1983 5
November 1983 3
October 1983 3
September 1983 9 9
August 1983 13 13
July 1983 12 12
June 1983 17 17
May 1983 6 6
April 1983 15 15
March 1983 1
February 1983 1
January 1983 3
YEAR 1982 111/12=9.25 6 mo. consec.
December 1982 2
November 1982 3
October 1982 10 10
September 1982 12 12
August 1982 12 12
July 1982 18 18
June 1982 34 34
May 1992 10 10
April 1982 2
March 1982 1
February 1982 3
January 1982 4
YEAR 1981 90/12=7.5 6 mo. consec.
December 1981 2
November 1981 7
October 1981 4
September 1981 8 8
August 1981 12 12
July 1981 10 10
June 1981 25 25
May 1981 7 7
April 1981 6 6
March 1981 1
February 1981 2
January 1981 6
YEAR 1980 141/12=11.75 5 mo. consec.
December 1980 10
November 1980 4
October 1980 12 12
September 1980 14 14
August 1980 18 18
July 1980 15 15
June 1980 36 36
May 1980 9
April 1980 6
March 1980 10
February 1980 0
January 1980 7
YEAR 1979 124/12=10.33 6 mo. consec.
December 1979 4
November 1979 7
October 1979 6
September 1979 7
August 1979 14 14
July 1979 20 20
June 1979 29 29
May 1979 8 8
April 1979 11 11
March 1979 9
February 1979 5
January 1979 4
YEAR 1978 180/12=15.0 3 mo. consec.
December 1978 8
November 1978 5
October 1978 11
September 1978 10
August 1978 32 32
July 1978 44 44
June 1978 36 36
May 1978 9
April 1978 4
March 1978 8
February 1978 4
January 1978 9
YEAR 1977 136/12=11.33 5 mo. consec.
December 1977 7
November 1977 7
October 1977 5
September 1977 12 12
August 1977 14 14
July 1977 24 24
June 1977 34 34
May 1977 17 17
April 1977 6
March 1977 4
February 1977 3
January 1977 3
YEAR 1976 152/12=12.67 4 mo. consec.
December 1976 4
November 1976 11
October 1976 10
September 1976 16 16
August 1976 17 17
July 1976 22 22
June 1976 48 48
May 1976 4
April 1976 3
March 1976 4
February 1976 6
January 1976 7
YEAR 1976 171/12=14.25 5 mo. consec.
December 1975 7
November 1975 9
October 1975 14 14
September 1975 17 17
August 1975 16 16
July 1975 24 24
June 1975 49 49
May 1975 10
April 1975 7
March 1975 7
February 1975 3
January 1975 8
YEAR 1974 140/12=11.67 5 mo. consec.
December 1974 4
November 1974 7
October 1974 14 14
September 1974 10 10
August 1974 18 18
July 1974 26 26
June 1974 34 34
May 1974 7
April 1974 7
March 1974 4
February 1974 1
January 1974 8
YEAR 1973 125/12=10.42 5 mo. consec.
December 1973 4
November 1973 7
October 1973 18 18
September 1973 14 14
August 1973 15 15
July 1973 19 19
June 1973 27 27
May 1973 6
April 1973 3
March 1973 5
February 1973 3
January 1973 4
YEAR 1972 98/12=8.17 4 mo. consec.
December 1972 2
November 1972 5
October 1972 7
September 1972 13 13
August 1972 11 11
July 1972 16 16
June 1972 28 28
May 1972 5
April 1972 1
March 1972 6
February 1972 1
January 1972 3
YEAR 1971 69/12=5.75 7 mo. consec.
December 1971 1
November 1971 2
October 1971 6 6
September 1971 7 7
August 1971 8 8
July 1971 9 9
June 1971 14 14
May 1971 6 6
April 1971 6 6
March 1971 1
February 1971 3
January 1971 6
YEAR 1970 81/12=6.75 4 mo. consec.
December 1970 2
November 1970 4
October 1970 8
September 1970 3
August 1970 9 9
July 1970 13 13
June 1970 16 16
May 1970 10 10
April 1970 2
March 1970 3
February 1970 4
January 1970 7
YEAR 1969 80/12=6.67 6 mo. consec.
December 1969 3
November 1969 3
October 1969 9 9
September 1969 3 3
August 1969 11 11
July 1969 16 16
June 1969 15 15
May 1969 7 7
April 1969 2
March 1969 1
February 1969 2
January 1969 8
YEAR 1968 108/12=9.0 5 mo. consec.
December 1968 7
November 1968 4
October 1968 11 11
September 1968 5 5
August 1968 10 10
July 1968 22 22
June 1968 26 26
May 1968 7
April 1968 6
March 1968 0
February 1968 1
January 1968 9
YEAR 1967 96/12=8.0 5 mo. consec.
December 1967 3
November 1967 5
October 1967 8 8
September 1967 16 16
August 1967 10 10
July 196711 11
June 1967 27 27
May 1967 6
April 1967 5
March 1967 2
February 1967 2
January 1967 1
YEAR 1966 108/12=9.0 5 mo. consec.
December 1966 3
November 1966 2
October 1966 11 11
September 1966 13 13
August 1966 11 11
July 1966 16 16
June 1966 27 27
May 1966 6
April 1966 8
March 1966 9
February 1966 1
January 1966 1
YEAR 1965 103/12=8.58 3 mo. consec.
December 1965 5
November 1965 4
October 1965 7
September 1965 5
August 1965 17 17
July 1965 20 20
June 1965 29 29
May 1965 7
April 1965 3
March 1965 2
February 1965 3
January 1965 1
YEAR 1964 45/12=3.75 5 mo. consec.
December 1964 0
November 1964 0
October 1964 1
September 1964 6 6
August 1964 12 12
July 1964 3 3
June 1964 15 15
May 1964 5 5
April 1964 2
March 1964 1
February 1964 0
January 1964 0
YEAR 1963 42/12=3.5 3 mo. consec.
December 1963 0
November 1963 1
October 1963 2
September 1963 0
August 1963 7 7
July 1963 13 13
June 1963 12 12
May 1963 2
April 1963 2
March 1963 1
February 1963 1
January 1963 1
YEAR 1962 33/12=2.75 4 mo. consec.
December 1962 0
November 1962 2
October 1962 1
September 1962 4 4
August 1962 4 4
July 1962 5 5
June 1962 10 10
May 1962 2
April 1962 1
March 1962 2
February 1962 1
January 1962 1
YEAR 1961 26/12=2.17 3 mo. consec.
December 1961 1
November 1961 1
October 1961 2
September 1961 2
August 1961 5 5
July 1961 5 5
June 1961 5 5
May 1961 1
April 1961 1
March 1961 0
February 1961 2
January 1961 1
YEAR 1960 41/12=3.42 4 mo. consec.
December 1960 0
November 1960 3
October 1960 1
September 1960 5 5
August 1960 7 7
July 1960 5 5
June 1960 14 14
May 1960 1
April 1960 1
March 1960 1
February 1960 2
January 1960 1
YEAR 1959 22/12=1.83 4 mo. consec.
December 1959 1
November 1959 1
October 1959 1
September 1959 1
August 1959 1
July 1959 5 5
June 1959 6 6
May 1959 3 3
April 1959 2 2
March 1959 0
February 1959 0
January 1959 1
YEAR 1958 25/12=2.08 5 mo. consec.
December 1958 0
November 1958 0
October 1958 1
September 1958 3 3
August 1958 2 2
July 1958 5 5
June 1958 10 10
May 1958 2 2
April 1958 1
March 1958 0
February 1958 1
January 1958 0
YEAR 1957 42/12=3.50 5 mo. consec.
December 1957 1
November 1957 2
October 1957 6 6
September 1957 2 2
August 1957 8 8
July 1957 10 10
June 1957 7 7
May 1957 3
April 1957 0
March 1957 2
February 1957 0
January 1957 1
YEAR 1956 20/12=1.67 2 mo. consec.
December 1956 0
November 1956 2
October 1956 2
September 1956 0
August 1956 0
July 1956 2 2
June 1956 9 9
May 1956 0
April 1956 0
March 1956 3
February 1956 0
January 1956 2
YEAR 1955 19/12=1.58 3 mo. consec.
December 1955 0
November 1955 0
October 1955 1
September 1955 1
August 1955 3 3
July 1955 3 3
June 1955 11 11
May 1955 0
April 1955 0
March 1955 0
February 1955 0
January 1955 0
YEAR 1954 35/12=2.92 2 mo. consec.
December 1954 1
November 1954 1
October 1954 1
September 1954 2
August 1954 2
July 1954 8 8
June 1954 15 15
May 1954 1
April 1954 1
March 1954 0
February 1954 0
January 1954 3
YEAR 1953 19/12=1.58 5 mo. consec.
December 1953 0
November 1953 3
October 1953 1
September 1953 0
August 1953 3 3
July 1953 2 2
June 1953 5 5
May 1953 1 1
April 1953 4 4
March 1953 0
February 1953 0
January 1953 0
YEAR 1952 33/12=2.75 3 mo. consec.
December 1952 1
November 1952 0
October 1952 1
September 1952 1
August 1952 5 5
July 1952 10 10
June 195210 10
May 1952 1
April 1952 2
March 1952 0
February 1952 1
January 1952 1
YEAR 1951 12/12=1.0 6 mo. consec.
December 1951 1
November 1951 1
October 1951 0
September 1951 0
August 1951 0
July 1951 5 5
June 1951 1 1
May 1951 0 0
April 1951 1 1
March 1951 1 1
February 1951 2 2
January 1951 0
YEAR 1950 7/12=0.58 3 mo. consec.
December 1950 0
November 1950 0
October 1950 0
September 1950 0
August 1950 0
July 1950 4 4
June 1950 2 2
May 1950 1 1
April 1950 0
March 1950 0
February 1950 0
January 1950 0
YEAR 1949 9/12=0.75 7 mo. consec.
December 1949 0
November 1949 0
October 1949 1 1
September 1949 1 1
August 1949 2 2
July 1949 2 2
June 1949 0 0
May 1949 2 2
April 1949 1 1
March 1949 0
February 1949 0
January 1949 0
YEAR 1948 3/12=0.25 3 mo. consec.
December 1948 0
November 1948 0
October 1948 0
September 1948 0
August 1948 1 1
July 1948 0 0
June 1948 2 2
May 1948 0
April 1948 0
March 1948 0
February 1948 0
January 1948 0
YEAR 1947 23/12=1.92 3 mo. consec.
December 1947 0
November 1947 0
October 1947 2
September 1947 0
August 1947 2 2
July 1947 9 9
June 1947 8 8
May 1947 0
April 1947 1
March 1947 0
February 1947 1
January 1947 0
Total Sightings Reported 29580
Groupings -Column C 18253
Timeframe in Years 58
Timeframe in Months 696
Total Variables 35
35/696 = 0.050287356
red variables* 12
12/696 = 0.017241379
Red variables represent numbers on either side of those posted in column 'C' within a given year that are
outside the grouping and of the necessary average or larger. There were only 12 out of 696 entries possible.
This amount could be considered insignificant when you consider that 12 is only 0.017% of 696.
blue variables* 23
23/696 = 0.033045977
0.25
0.75
1
1.33
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.67
1.83
2.33
2.75
3
3.42
3.67
4
4.08
4.17
4.38
4.92
5.25
7.25
9.67
END NESBITT REPORT
ADDITIONAL RESEARCH: Montgomery
SOURCE: Jacques Vallee, ANATOMY OF A PHENOMENON 3.
SOURCE: Jacques Vallee ANATOMY OF A PHENOMENON, (Op Cit) 4.
RESOURCES:
1.Eileen Nesbitt, http://www.ufocasebook.com UFO
Casebook home page
2.Thanks to Peter Davenport (Seattle) of the National UFO Center formerly at http://www.nuforc.com had been changed to http://www.nwlink.com/~ufocntr/ and is now at http://www.ufocenter.com/ It is the same name, just a different web address
3.Vallee, Jacques ANATOMY OF A PHENOMENON ©1965 Henry Regnery Company, Chicago, IL USA. See the Chapter entitled "Flying Saucers and Human Reason"
4.Vallee, Jacques ANATOMY OF A PHENOMENON (Op Cit)
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